Working Papers

Job Market Paper  -  Aging Population and Technology Adoption 

Population aging affects the relative supply of labor and the age composition of workers, thereby altering technology adoption decisions. Empirical evidence indicates a hump-shaped relationship between the age of the population and the adoption of new technology. A model of endogenous technology adoption shows that the increasing part of the relationship can be attributed to the shortage in the overall labor force, while the declining part is driven by the increasing scarcity of young workers possessing the necessary skills for technology use. Calibrating the model to fit European data, we observe that population aging is a major driver of the increase in new technology adoption between 1990 and 2015, while it determines its slowdown between 2015 and 2040. Population aging is also a primary contributor to wage inequality, explaining a larger share of its increase than technological progress. Finally, retirement policies are identified as a key determinant of new technology adoption and labor productivity growth in the next decades.

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Fiscal policy and human capital in the race against the machine (with Niemann S. and Röser F.)
The interaction of fiscal policy and education spending on economic growth and inequality is analyzed in a dynamic growth model with automation, education choice, and human capital formation. Although beneficial for economic growth, automation contributes to wage inequality. While direct redistribution mitigates inequality at the cost of lower economic growth, education spending boosts production, eventually increasing inequality. The tax composition (labor vs robot tax) financing government spending is key in determining the effect on economic growth and inequality, as the robot tax is relatively more redistributive than the labor tax. We calibrate our model to the US economy and estimate the dynamic welfare-maximizing tax policy. Optimality requires an initial reduction in the robot tax to foster automation and boost economic growth, followed by its gradual increase as redistributive motives become more salient. Additionally, we explore education subsidies and identify the conditions leading to welfare improvements.

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Aging Consumers, Market Structure, and Growth (with Max Brès)
We analyze the effect of population aging on economic growth through its impact on competition in the goods market. As individuals age, they update their consumption basket less frequently and their opportunity cost of time drops after retirement. Hence, population aging changes the characteristics of demand, which, in turn, modifies market structures and aggregate trends. To identify the effect coming from the demand side of the economy, we instrument changes in the age composition of demand with unexpected foreign demographics shocks. We find that middle-aged consumers reduce competition relative to younger and older consumers, leading to a decline in average productivity. We rationalize our results in a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent model in which firms compete within and between varieties. Younger consumers increase competition between varieties due to a higher elasticity of substitution, while older consumers increase competition within varieties because of a lower opportunity cost of time. With a larger share of middle-aged consumers, demand shifts towards less productive firms and reduces the overall incentive to post low prices and improve productivity. Our estimates indicate that this age demand channel resulted in an 8.7% reduction in US GDP growth from 1995-2004 and a 10.3% increase from 2005-2019.
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Work in Progress

• Retirement Age Policy and Skill Acquisition over the Life Cycle - with Tim Hermann

• Technological Subsidies and the Gender Wage Gap - with Tommaso Santini

 Teaching

University of Konstanz

• Course: Technological Change, Automation, and Artificial Intelligence (2022,2023) 

• Course: Introduction to Matlab for Macroeconomics (2021, 2022, 2023)

• Master Seminar: Hot Topics in Macro Labor (2022, 2023)

• Reading Group:  Hot Topics in Economics (2022)

• Bachelor Seminar: The Economics of Technological Change (2023)   

University of Rome Tor Vergata

• Teaching Assistant (Prof. Daniela Vuri): Microeconomics (2021)

   New York University (Florence)

• Teaching Assistant (Prof. Giampiero Gallo): International Economics (2018, 2019)

 Awards

 Teaching Award of the Department of Economics for Young Scientists
 University of  Konstanz,  2023